we'll see you again tomorrow night. i'm chris math use up in new york. bill clinton pitching coach, former president clinton who outsmarted republicans who tried to make him a one-termer has some political advice for president obama. he said there's still time to for obama to hold off for republican tidal wave but he says the only way to stop that republican wave is to tell voters not to let their disappointment cloud their judgment that obama's got plain to voters that our economy is improving faster than most of the worlds. that he's got to be optimistic about the future of this country and make the argument about

republican ideas being no good. he's also got to nationalize the midterms in 1994. that's the advice today. and the president has to ask for two more years to get the job done. can this president pull off a popularity comeback in the way bill clinton did? that's our top story. plus, house republicans unveil their pledge to america today and it could be the biggest cover-up since watergate. it showcases all the predictable soft sell proposals but goes radio silent on the more radical ideas of their parent. the wild stuff about changing the constitution. and make no mistake, the fringe on the right will have a strong voice if republicans win control of the congress. but there are a lot of races getting awfully tight out there. and the tight places that you wouldn't think would be close. have some simply reached their sell by date? also, what does it say when someone sitting in the office of a republican u.s. senator from georgia sends out a menacing, antigay dmoent the blog of an antigay advocate? an unsigned statement admits that someone sitting in his

office, the senator's office, was apparently behind the ancillary gay-bashing slur. and now, the senate sergeant in arms is investigating the matter. and sarah palin talks about the reason she would run for president. well, that's in "the sideshow" tonight. all that's ahead, but first, let's check in on the hot races around the country to see where they stand right now tonight. here's the "hardball" scoreboard. i love this. i'm starting in new york in the senate race. kirsten gillibrand and joe dioguardi. quinnipiac has the race now at six points. gillibrand leads by just 48% to 42%. wow that's a tight race for a state as blue as new york. and it comes just a day after cuomo's lead in the new york governor's race was cut down to six points. now look at the poll. sienna poll registered voters while quinnipiac polled likely voters.

quinnipiac was smart, they polled likely voters. now to arkansas where senator blanche lincoln trails bad low. down to 53% to 39%. the republican, joe boozeman in the new ipsos/reuters poll. finally to california. it's a damn good poll. it shows a dead heat, literally a dead heat between jerry brown and meg whitman both at 40% way lot of undecided out there. we're going to continue to check the hashs scoreboarda and all of the big races each night leading up to election day, november 2nd. now to bill clinton's advice for president obama. hot stuff here. john harris is editor in chief of politico. he interviewed president clinton yesterday. happens in our network in morning. let's look at some of the advice the former president gave. here's bill clinton when he said obama should do to nationalize as he put it the midterms the way that newt gingrich did in '94. ask the country for patience to get country moving in the right direction again. acknowledge voter disappointment

and anger, explain how our economy's doing better than the rest of the worlds and show optimism about the future of the country. let's look at the quote from the president. >> i think that the democrats ought to put on one card, no more than five and no fewer than three things that will be their priorities. i know how easy it is to lose control of the debate. happened to me in '93 and '94, but remember the gift newt gingrich gave america. political science gift. political science gift. newt gingrich proved with that contract for america that you could nationalize the midterm elections. so, i think that the president and democrats even if at this late date, should do this as an opportunity and an obligation to say, all right, they've organized their national plan. here's what ours is. if you hire us for two more years, here's what we're going to do. >> that could be well stated. but let's see if it's smart stuff. let's go to john harris and then to chris cillizza with the same

question. expect president obama unite the party, the democratic party, his party, behind the single message or at least a common front going into nease elections or is it already too scattered? john harris. >> chris, president clinton's message to me was that they should at least urgently try this. i think the people around him privately do acknowledge what i think most people here in washington acknowledge, that it's very, have been hard to change the fundamentals of this election with so very little time left and with so much of it resting on the economy, which isn't likely to appreciably change before the midterms. so president clinton i think has no illusions about how dire the situation is. >> on the very point on nationalizing the election, president clinton knows as much about politics than any of the three of us, certainly. does he know or something that we don't know about the potential of barack obama to unite the party? or is everyone for himself at this point?

>> i think he knows every man or person for himself will not work out because you'll see people going in lots of different elections. this is a nationalized election. it is going to be at least in part maybe large part, a referendum on barack obama and the democratic-led congress. what i think bill clinton is smart about, the advice he's trying to give is to say you need to focus like you did in 2006 and 2008 on republicans. remember, chris, this has to be -- i say it's a bear election. you just have to be faster than the other guy. you just have to be faster than the bear. people don't like democrats. they also don't like republicans. bill clinton i think is saying, focus on republicans. focus on what they be doing. and barack obama to his credit he's trying to do that. he's gotten more in campaign mode lately than he has. democrats would have liked him to be in there sooner. so they're trying to do it. i think though to john's point you are going to see some splinters. there's going to be panic. the democrats will say, i need to do what's good for me and that's going to be harder to nationalize it and make it just

about republicans. >> people like the former quarterback for the redskins out there on his own. you've got edwards on his own. john, they've already skipped town, some of these guys. they don't want to identify themselves with pelosi, the speaker of the house and with barack obama. and no way to get them back on the reservation? is that your view? >> in many cases, it is. and what president clinton was saying to me was that look, you've got to give republicans some credit. we're giving a lot of attention to the hard-core republican base. the most strident tea partiers. a lot of this election is being determined by fiscally conservative independents and republicans are appealing to those people by portraying barack obama as a european style, big government socialist. you've got to respond to that. implicitly what he was saying is democrats have been off of the field. they've not had an effective, sustained response to that. >> really quickly to john's point, really quickly. pew poll out today specifically

at independents. 13 on the ballots for self-identified independents. a huge shift 18 points, remember they went to democrats by 18 points in the 2006 midterms. so bill clinton and john harris frankly are exactly right. they've got to find a way. they are not going to win independents but they can't lose them by that kind of margein? a 31-point shift. >> yeah. >> 31-point shift, amazing. should ask voters for patience. let's listen on to his call for patience to his friend obama. >> i urge and my fellow democrats to tell the american people that the country wasn't back to work, nobody was happy, but according to all of the numbers, the recession's bottomed out and it was job time, show time. so the only real issue in this election should be, what is his party going to offer get on country moving again. which idea is most likely to work? i think that ought to be the debate. what are we going to do, who is

more likely going to do it? and i think, i believe they should say, give us two more years do this. if it doesn't work you can -- all out. >> is that something a president can ask for at this point? >> i think that a president can. probably the presidency only a politician in the country with the kind of platform to make that case. give us time to see -- >> reagan used to say stay the course. he only lost 26 seats by saying stay the course, hang with me. >> in 1982 chris, it was going to be much, much worse. what clinton says that is interesting, he said, obama needs to acknowledge people's anger, including his disappointment -- many people's disappointment in him. not run away from it. run into it. he said he was happy the other day on cnbc when president obama got confronted by that woman who said she's getting tired of defending him. she said obama needs to hear that. >> let me run through this. i want to recap. >> all that is about empathy. all that is about empathy.

bill clinton was the empathizer in chief, barack obama, even with the question the other day on cnbc, he gave kind of a long answer about why his policies worked. he's not the glad hander, hugging the women, kissing the babies. that's just not who he is. i don't know if bill clinton's be more empathetic, embrace the anger, the emotion. it's not barack obama and i wonder, it wouldn't look a little inauthent fick he tried it. i'm not sure that it work for barack obama. >> here's what we said to you, he needs to turn into it. you know all of this is hard stuff given the realities. 9.6% unemployment rate. if that is hanging up there

between now and election day the rest of this is trying to cut your damages. isn't that the case, chris? >> yes. >> you're basically -- okay. >> look, look, chris. if you look since world war ii the first midterm election of a president, every single president has lost 16 to 20 house seats with the exception of george bush that was in 2002 after the 2001 terrorist attacks. yes, democrats are going to lose seats. these sort of strategies, empathy, folks, republicans talk about what you've done on the economy, all of those things are aimed at mitigating their logses, not eliminating them. >> let me go to john harris. you guys at politico really do a great jock. let me ask you about this thing, the problem this president faces. i think we did see in that cnbc town meeting the other day with velma hart that stood up there and asked that tough question about having to go back to hot dogs and beans because she was broken into the middle class and going back to the working class, so she feared that. she and her husband, facing college tuition bills. a real life experience of

america. i think that she got us to the kitchen table. the president spent about an hour in that interview with john harwood sort of poking him back every time he asked a serious question. when that woman asked the question, very intelligently and clearly, he sort of pushed her back like, oh, you don't know what i've done about credit cards. you don't know all of the information that i have. he seemed more like george herbert walker bush. than bill clinton. your thoughts, john harris. >> it's very, very hard to communicate in a country as divided as this one with so many different information channels. it's harder frankly than when ronald reagan was doing it in the midterm in 1982 as chris mentioned. it's harder than the environment that bill clinton faced during the 1990s. i don't think there's any doubt that obama is frustrate. fee feels like his message is not getting through. his own policy is being charactered by republicans and not fully appreciated by the

electorate and that's what his job is about. >> you know, chris, it's not an easy job or anybody would have it. >> his best advice is to do what he did. feel their pain. >> look, chris, i agree, but remember, bill clinton was good at that because it came from who he naturally was. that is not -- i don't believe, i spent too much time studying barack obama, that is not who barack obama is. i'm not saying that he shouldn't take a little of bill clinton's vaerks pour it over, do the i feel your pain bit. but you have to in politics, the reason barack obama won this presidency in the first place, because he was true to himself. because he didn't pander. he didn't do the sorts of things that are expected of politician. >> i think that basically the advice is basically, you can do it, i can't. it's more like bragging. coming up, the republican party unveils its so-called pledge to america and it may be just the biggest political cover up since watergate. you know the good stuff, cut taxes.

cut spending. but the big question is, does it really hide or disguise the much more serious, more radical proposal than the republican party has? the tea party stuff that we hear all of the time. how come that's not on the paper? let's talk about what's being covered over on this pledge. you're watching "hardball." no pain medicine is proven to last longer than advil. not tylenol. not aleve. nothing lasts longer than advil. pain relief that lasts. one more reason to make advil your #1 choice. ya. uhhuh. mhhmm. oh i know. that was cute. right. honey eat. [ male announcer ] kraft macaroni and cheese. you know you love it.

first it was lisa murkowski up in alaska running as a wright-in candidate after getting bounced from that primary but is mike castle next? the senate race. he has not ruled out for senate as a wright-in candidate. he says a lot of people have approached him about it. he was beaten by christine o'donnell who now trails badly in the polls to democrat chris coons. cassel had led coons in most polls beforelution the nomination for o'donnell. boy what a break for chris coons this whole thing has been. he's a double digit leader now. "hardball" back after this.

[ amy ] as a dietitian, all of my patients are my top priority.

but one patient is my favorite... my mother. last year mom needed additional nutrition so i recommended boost nutritional drink. and she still drinks it every day. [ male announcer ] boost has 26 vitamins & minerals and calcium to help keep bones strong... and 10g of protein to help maintain muscle. making it the perfect compliment to your daily routine. [ amy ] boost drink gives my favorite patient the complete nutrition she needs to keep doing the things she loves.

we get it. we get it. and this is why when we outlined in here, our pledge to america, i can tell you, we are very serious about implementing our pledge. >> i love it they take off the suits when they get serious. welcome back to "hardball." that was house republican leader john boehner introducing the republicans' pledge to america and here's what congressman james clyburn of south carolina had to say about it. >> after reading it over last night, it occurred to me that if this is implemented, what we're going to see is the infliction of a plague on america. >> wow, what effect will this new pledge have on the midterms? who gets an edge. joining me now is democratic strategist steve mcmahan and todd harris. here are some of the points in the pledge on paper. on tax cuts. it calls for making bush tax cuts permanent.

no surprise there. on business tax cuts it calls for giving small businesses a deduction equal to 20% of their business income. it calls for a new cap on government spending. for the repeal of the health care bill. repeal. and fully funding, i don't know where this came from, missile defense. full funding of missile defense. that's an odd one. you're not laughing, steve. you're not todd. here's what i think is being hidden under the table. during his campaign, changing the 14th amendment to guarantee citizenship in this country. let's talk about someone making the proposal, it's not on the paper here. >> people come here to have babies. they come here to drop a child. it's called drop and leave. >> republicans are talking about actions that would shut down government if they take control of congress. let's listen again. >> stage one. of the end of obamaism will be a new republican congress in january that simply refuses to fund any of the radical efforts.

>> shut down. some talk about repealing this 17th amendment. allows for direct senators. they're also talking about privatizing social security, which is addressed in a number of places, but particularly in republican congressman paul ryan's so-called road map to america's future. it seems to me, todd harris, that a lot of nice stuff is put on this paper here. but stuff that we're hearing out at meetings, the tea party meetings, the more radical voices have been muffled here. your thoughts? >> one of the nice things about actually being in control of your party campaign apparatus is that you get to decide what you're going to run on and what you're not going to run on. you know, no democrat gets to decide that. no one in the media gets to decide what the republican message is going to be and clearly, what the leaders of our party have said is that this campaign is going to be about cutting spending, reducing the size of government, repealing and replacing obama care. so, you may not like it and you

may want to ascribe things that other people have said to what our party's going to run on, but that doesn't make it so. >> so now you've got the argument, steve, which is supervision will be at hand. all the crazy stuff we've heard for months now isn't going to happen. because according to todd -- what's your argument? going to keep all of these people in the playpen. no trouble from them. what's argument the democrats are going to be? >> it's funny because the democrats have been saying for a while the choice in this election is a choice for the future and the past. i think what the republicans have done now is they've actually proven that case. they objected to it before, saying no, no, no, we're not going back to that. but now they are proving. they want to cut tax for rich, build the dang fence, build the antiballistic missile system. why that is needed is anyone's guess. and the tea party candidates are even more insidious and extreme. many of them want to do things like get rid of social security. get rid of medicare, because

they think it's unconstitutional. rand paul in kentucky thinks the civil rights act is unconstitutional. so you're right. they're keeping the crazies in the closet, but they are there and they've got an "r" next to their name. >> why are we talking about in a time of fiscal austerity, the republicans are pitching, why are we talking about high frontier? that's missile defense against icbns, the kinds the soviets have. why icbns. not cruise missiles, other kinds of tackle or medium range. why not against putin or medvedev? >> because the missile defense system isn't aimed at russia. and at a time when you have iran -- >> who else has icbms that can come to the united states? >> look, i for one, am not just going to sit and cross my fingers and hope that iran doesn't get the technology to both create a nuclear warship and create the kind of missile system where they can deliver it and so i think it's totally

reasonable and rational that we would prepare for something like that. but there's no question that missile defense is not going to be at the core of what republican candidates are talking about. >> steve, you take over. they're talking about missile defense of the whole continental of the united states. they call it homeland. i call it civil defense. they're talking about the whole country, they're going to have missile defense for. the cost of that, i would imagine is unimaginable. and there's the question. is that something to spend money on because somewhere down the line, someone's going to get an icbm, the kind of missile that iraq had, that got us here now, that they had a deliverable weapon that could reach here. >> you have a party on the one hand that wants fiscal. it was ronald reagan who first proposed this in 1984 and 1985 and it was something that we didn't need then. it's something that frankly we don't need now and it's something that we certainly can't afford right now.

and i think that the republicans, paul ryan, who thinks of himself as a fiscal hawk, would be hard-pressed i think to explain why it is that we should spend all of this money, as a time when we really can't afford it. >> you know a time that we're trying to get the soviets to reduce their missile supply and their weapon, their arsenal and we're trying to reduce ours. you know that putting up a big wall right around the united states against their kind of missiles is going to create another -- another acceleration which we don't need in the 21st century. in the u.s. versus russia missile race. the minute we put up that big high wall that stops icbms, afford it take the technology to do it, they would immediately say, we need more missiles to make sure some get through. why is the united states reengaging in the cold war. your thoughts. what would you do if you were a russian and saw us doing this. you wouldn't think about iran. because iran doesn't have icbms. >> i'm sorry, todd. one of the things that's happening with the russians is we're beginning to engage in ways that are productive in the middle east and elsewhere. if we want to drive a wedge in between our relationships that

we've begun with the soviets and the relationships frankly that we need with the soviets this is a great way do this. >> was this written by the american enterprise institute? someone like cheney. who are the neo cons who still have their nandevery republican document? what's going to? because you know it sounds wacky. you know it sounds wacky. >> i have no idea who wrote the document. i know that they went out and talked to a whole lot of average americans and there's the things that -- >> they went to the american enterprise institute. i'm waiting to hear about precious bodily fluids. it's dr. strange love. your guys. >> hold on a minute. chris, for months, you've been talking about how the republican parents -- just the parent of no. they don't stand for anything. they're just against everything that president obama says and so now, the party has come out and said you know what, we just don't want to be the opposition. we want to offer an alternative. and now -- the party comes out and says, if you --

>> you are right. >> -- the republicans in power this is what we're going to do, and you know i think it's a great thing that they've done it. >> it's great. the party with new ideas. let's restart the cold war. >> how about the party of no new ideas and the party of no fresh ideas. >> todd, i know you didn't wright this stuff. anyway, thank you steve mcmann and todd harris. you wouldn't have put this weirdo up there -- unless you the client. up next, sarah palin gives strongest hint so far she might run for president because she's laying down markers as to why she might run. you will hear it. it has to do with the security of the country. she's going to protect it. i was driving in northern california. my son was asleep. i really didn't see it coming. i didn't realize i was drifting into the other lane. [ kim ] i was literally falling asleep at the wheel. it got my attention, telling me that i wasn't paying attention. i had no idea the guy in front of me had stopped short. but my car did. my car did. thankfully, my mercedes did. [ male announcer ] a world you can't predict... demands a car you can trust. the e-class. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer

for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial. ♪ host: through mercedes-benz financial. save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance?really was abe lincoln honest? mary: does this dress make my backside look big? abe: perhaps... save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance?really host: is having a snowball fight with pitching great randy johnson a bad idea? man: yeah, i'm thinking maybe this was a bad idea. thanks. i got the idea from general mills big g cereals. they put a white check on the top of every box to let people know that their cereals have healthy whole grain, and they're the right choice... (announcer) general mills makes getting whole grain an easy choice. just look for the white check.

so we can work quickly. nate... sorry. i know you've been late all of your life... that is one late baby. wait ! ... but i need you with me on the morning flight to london and you cannot be late, nate. i knew it. we know why you fly. we're american airlines.

now back to "hardball." now back to "the sideshow." watch marco rubio get his take on whether candidates with little experience such as fellow tea partierier, christine

o'donnell are fit for office. >> first of all, the original design of our republic was for everyday people to serve in government for a period of time. the republic works and it's not designed to elect a bunch of experts. it's designed, really, to be an expert and the republic is someone who knows what life is like in the real world. >> people who pass vital legislation ought to know what they're talking about. can we agree on that one? by the way it's that stain of that anti-intelligentism that led to the rise of someone like sarah palin. a public service. >> what is it that if your mind would be a reason to run? >> a reason to run is if nobody else were to step up with the solutions that are needed to get the economy back on the right track and to be so committed to our national security that they are going to do all they can including fighting those on the extreme left who seem to want to dismantle some of our national

security tools in place. if nobody else wanted to step up. greta, i would offer myself up in the name of service to the public. >> well that does mean, to me, she hasn't decided whether she's running or not. she has not decided. now to tonight's big number. pledge to america mentions spending, 47 times. but what about earmarks? you know when a congressman or senator says i want this money spent on my project, specifically. well you'd think that the party of fiscal responsibility would take a hard line against this kind of earmarking, right? well by the -- newspaper account ear marks are mentioned in this new big republican blueprint today zero times. when push comes toshof republicans filed take a stand against earmarks. zero mentions. you know why? they think that they're running the place next year and to stop the pork. they want to spend. big numbers tonight. up next, hot race around country, some that you suspected, others that weren't supposed to be this close. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. my nasal allergies are ruining our camping trip. i know who works differently than many other allergy medications. hoo? omnaris.

[ men ] omnaris -- to the nose! [ man ] did you know nasal symptoms like congestion can be caused by allergic inflammation? omnaris relieves your symptoms by fighting inflammation. side effects may include headache, nosebleed, and sore throat. [ inhales deeply ] i told my allergy symptoms to take a hike. omnaris. ask your doctor. battling nasal allergy symptoms? omnaris combats the cause. get omnaris for $11 at omnaris.com. ♪ i like your messy hair ♪ i like the clothes you wear

♪ i like the way you sing ♪ and when you dance with me ♪ you always make me smile [ male announcer ] we believe you're at your best when you can relax and be yourself. and at thousands of newly refreshed holiday inn express hotels, you always can. holiday inn express. stay you. and now stay rewarded with a sweet dilemma. up to five free nights at any of our properties or double points.

virginia has executed the first woman put to death in the u.s. in five years. she was convicted of arranging mergers of her husband and stepson to collect two hundred fifty thousand dollars president obama at the u.n. "b" today urging world leaders to support the latest mideast peace efforts. back at the u.n., the american delegation walked out in disgust after the iranian president suggested that the senate democrats had decided to delay a vote on extending middle class tax cuts until after the november elections. the house senate package of tax breaks and incentives, small the fda is putting new restrictions on the diabetes drug avandia after it was banned in europe due it a reported heart risks.

ni any fisher has died. he was 82. he starred in movies and on tv. he was best known for his marriages to elizabeth taylor and debbie reynolds. welcome back to "hardball." lots of hot developments in the midterm fights this week. go to the "hardball" scoreboard for a couple of ones. in california the new field poll the much respected field poll shows a dead heat. in the governor's race, jerry brown and meg whitman are tied literally at 41% each. in n york senate race, incumbent democrat gil brand and joe dio guardi are shockingly close in quinnipiac's poll. the difference as i said before, cy and registered voters.

morthese top fights bring in pat buchanan and washington bureau chief david corn who also writes for dailypoliticsdaily.com. pat, i was stunned that jerry brown after all the mileage on this guy, everybody's seen him for years out there in california as mayor of oakland, governor of california for two terms, chairman of the democratic party, all kinds of publicity, good and bad over the year, lots of experience and looking at the guy, they can't decide. 41-41 means 18% of likely voters haven't made up their minds. >> well, i think it's very bad news i think for jerry brown. of course, this lady spent $120 million i believe, chris, just to get to a tie, so i don't think she's an extraordinary strong candidate. what it does tell you though is how deeply democratic the state of california has become since the days of richard nixon and ronald reagan when we put it right from the bank before the election started. >> maybe richard nixon has

something to do with that. let me ask david corn this economy. why are so many undecided with a blanket of tv commercials? i mean this candidate has spent more eye think it's unbelievable. i will not -- i mean i can't knock it, not have a fight to do this but this kind of advertising and it still sees it like the dog doesn't like the dog food to be honest with you. something that people are resisting in this candidacy -- i mean is california not on ebay in you can't buy it on ebay? is that what's going to here? >> if you could she'd be head. the interesting thing about the undecided number, chris, is that it was 11% in march, 13% in july. now, 18%. according to the field poll. so people are becoming more undecided as we move closer to the election. as you said she spent $120 million. she's committed to spending $150 million more, and she already has $30 million coming from campaign contributions. she may spend a third of a billion dollars.

a third of a billion dollars. >> okay i need a minute from you on pat on this. i know that you're not george wilt exactly in terms of the amendment in dollar signs. but spend all the money you can come up with, my question, do you think the danger is she might see in the tracking poll she's down two points the last thursday or friday night before the election and just drops another $15 million on the table and wins with pure money. is that good for our country? >> she's put $300 million, i'd throw the last $50 into the pot. >> but is it good for us. we're the pot. >> look, ross perot would have never run third party if he didn't have all that money. put $60 million in. bloomberg, he would never be considered. unless he put it all in. that's where we are, chris. mitt romney i think is a fine candidate, but if he didn't have all that money, would he be in this race? i think jack kennedy, if he didn't lead a leisurely life and all of that money would he had

been in that race? life is unfair as somebody said. >> i think it was jack. it's guessing a lot less fair and not exactly a republic when people are buying it. >> no it's not. >> here's carly fiorina's new ad. she's getting tough. let's listen. >> you know, do me a favor, could you say senator instead of ma'am? i worked so hard to get that title, so i'd appreciate it, yes, thank you. >> 28 years in washington and barbara boxer works hard for a title. i'll really go to work to end the arrogance in washington. i'm carly fiorina and i approve this message. >> oh, god, this is brutal. david corn, you take a shot at this. i thought when she said that the women would rally to her, don't call me ma'am, call me senator, it turns out eye checked around the office today among our producers, she did go over the top with that critique of the general by some people's standards.

>> you know this is kind of a softball here. i would like to have seen carly fiorina go to bat for the 30,000 employees she laid off at hewlett-packard when she was outsourcing jobs and defending it. when we have jobs, climate issues, she's afghanistan, to make the race about this, and by the way, today, carly fiorina is in washington, d.c. she is having fund-raisers with lobbyists. so here she is talking about the arrogance of washington when she's taking money, collecting money from lobbyists in washington to work behind the scene to influence what goes on. i mean that's arrogance in itself. >> chris. >> what. >> what david corn's diversion to some meeting in washington tells you, this is a very powerful and effective ad, because it feeds into an impression about barbara boxer, which is a negative one, but it is very widely held and it dramatically reinforces it and it's said kind of softly and very effectively, the folks in your office reacted like normal folks out there, probably swing voters, maybe sympathetic to

democrats. so i think it hurts very badly because it has the anslarry benefit of being true. >> okay, here's video. pro-reid. a harry reid ad, really going after sharron angle about a 2009, something that she said about health care. let's listen. this is another, grabbing the tape and going after the opponent stuff. let's listen. >> take off the mandates for coverage in the state of nevada and all over the united states, but here, you know what i'm talking about. you're paying for things that you don't even need. the latest one is every -- everything that they want to throw at us, now is covered under autism. so that's a mandate that you have to pay for. how about maternity leave? i'm not going to have any more babies, but i sure get to pay for it on my insurance. those are the kinds of things that we want to get rid of. >> speak next wrong tone will that offend people with autism

and their families, quotes in the air making fun of people who had been diagnosed with that? >> it would offend anybody who wants an intelligent candidate. she said they're throwing everything at us under the mandate of autism? i don't know what she's even talk about there. it's not a serious criticism of the health care reform bill. and listen, it's amazing to me, still, that with everything harry reid's throwing at her, he's only a few points up -- ahead of the polls. she still with win this thing. >> chris, i tell you what, what this tells you though -- i agree with david here. the desperation of harry reid and going here. but what she's talking about -- >> well, wouldn't you go there, pat? >> sure. >> an opponent who made that comment. >> what she's talking about is the individual mapped a. and i agree, it was bad low stated when you got into that autism thing, which nobody understands, but again, this is what -- what this shows you is the leader of the united states senate who got through national health care is in a campaign of desperation to save his seat

against a candidate who is not a very polished candidate. >> can you imagine the u.s. senate made up of a hundred sharron angles. >> a hundred harry reids would be worse. >> you think so. >> you're a partisan to make that argument, pat, thank you. >> an innocent disaster that we've got in this country and makes a few mistakes. for heaven's sakes they moved the country in the right direction. >> this disaster was not delivered to us by the democratic senate or house. >> but you worsened it. you worsened it. >> no, no. hold the people responsible who set the policies that led to the crash that nearly destroyed our economy. the thing is, you can be there and cheerlead christine o'donnell, sharron angle, but at the end of the day i still think that having people who understand policy, who know what they're talking about, whether right, left, in the middle, it's kind of an important value for this country. >> that's where you are wrong and i'll tell you why. people who are intelligent -- let me talk. people who are intelligence, may be smarter, but have got the wrong ideas and leading us in

the wrong direction are worse to have in -- >> republicans put us here in the first place. >> it's like reagan. jimmy carter may have had a higher i.q. and known more details of government but reagan happened to be right on the issues, when he came to town. and they worked and obama's have not. that's the problem. >> a recession under you. >> well, reagan -- >> the same thing happened to reagan that happened with obama. unemployment went up when reagan came into office. he had a recession and he said, stay the course and at the time, you weren't saying, you made things worse. >> things got better under reagan and america. >> listen, things have gotten better in terms of job losses under barack obama. it's quite true. the rate of loss went down after obama came in and he had a stimulus that worked and kept unemployment from getting even higher. >> your argument is the argument of herbert hoover. it was not his fault. there's no doubt about it. but it worsened under him and it got worse and worse taken didn't

get better for years. >> gentlemen, i hope they're watching in california. you're reducing the number of undecided. thank you, pat buchanan and thank you david corn. up next, the hideous antigay insult posted on her website during an internet, well, discussion about gays in the militaries that has been traced back to the office of republican senator saxby chambliss of georgia. chambliss' staffer released an unsigned statement admitting it came from his office and the senator says he will not tolerate it. he will fire whoever did it. he's getting to the point here, which it took a while to do. this is "hardball" only on msnbc. ♪ well, it feels so good [ female announcer ] when you have a softer bath tissue, you can enjoy going more... while still using less. introducing new charmin ultra soft. new charmin ultra soft has an ultra-cushiony design that's soft and more absorbent. so you can use four times less versus the leading value brand. [ both ] ♪ soft to the touch... [ female announcer ] using less never felt so good.

new charmin ultra soft. enjoy the go. well the brilliant 538 nate silvers out with his latest forecasting model for the u.s. senate races and republicans have increased their chances of taking control, slightly. nate gives republicans now an 18-point chance of winning at least 51 seats. the majority, that's up from 15 points. notice the difference, 15 to 18? and it's all in the last week.

and on average, he's forecasting in his model it shows republicans ending up with between 47, 4 seats right now. the democrats seem to be building a firewall along the west coast, where washington state's patry murray and california's barbara boxer are opening up leads in recent polling. so it looks like the left coast is holding. "hardball" will be right back. hey. what are you doing up? i thought i'd take a drive before work. want to come? [ female announcer ] or make his day. yeah. [ female announcer ] maxwell house gives you a rich, full-flavored cup of coffee, so you can be good to the last drop. oh! just come snuggle with mama. [ male announcer ] missing something? like 2 pairs of glasses fo$99.99 at sears optical, with bifocal lenses for just $25 more per pair. hurry in to sears optical today and don miss a thing.

it'll cost a fortune to insure you. nationwide insurance, we need a freeze-frame here. let's give parents a break, right ? let the discounts they've earned be passed down to their teens. save mom and dad up to 25% versus the competition.

we'll call it the nationwide family plan. here you go, and there you go. unfreeze ! keys ! savings ! ♪ nationwide is on your side ♪ road trip ! we're back. on tuesday night, the senate refused to move forward on repealing don't ask, don't tell, someone named jimmy posted a point that said, all gays must die. though this jimmy used an anti-gay slur far worse than gays. it was a nasty, nasty comment. the blog's author was able to trace the comment and determined to appeared to come from an a computer in the office of senator saxby shambliss' office. he put out a statement that said the sergeant at arms has worked side by side with our personnel to determine who made this

statement. we invited someone from the senator's office to appear tonight. neither the senator nor anyone from his office agreed to come. let's turn to gerald paulus of colorado and the editor of the log cabin republicans. a hill newspaper reporter got chambliss to say, i won't tolerate something like that. you know that everybody who works in your office works for you. anybody gets into your office, it's your responsibility. what's your reaction and the way he's handled it? >> he ought to be able to find out who did it. we're talking about an office with six people, eight tops.

the real problem is how many republican staffers are out there, have these kinds of crazy ideas so far removed from the american mainstream and contrary to american values? >> let me go to clark cooper. you represent gay republicans in your organization and do a great job of it. are there still throwbacks of republican congress people and senators? >> not at all. in fact, you -- >> not at all? wait a minute, this didn't happen. >> hey, this is one bad apple. senator chambliss himself said, i will not tolerate any sentiment like that. i want to -- >> why doesn't he find out who did it? >> well, he's going through the due process. in fact, i think it's appropriate that the sergeant at arms investigate the ip address. by the way, he doesn't have six or eight staffers. senator chambliss had 42 staffers. >> you are playing defense and i don't know why. >> this is from his atlanta office. one office in atlanta.

somebody in the office did it. why doesn't he call up this office and talk to his chief of staff and find out who did it. why is he bringing in the democratic. appointed staff of arms who doesn't even know anyone. wouldn't you as the boss want to find out immediately and take internet and not try to outsource it? >> of course, of course. i'm not senator chambliss but i would presume this staffer probably won't have a job in the near future. it's a no-go. i don't think any member, house, senate, republican or democrat, would tolerate it. >> how many weeks do you think he should have to find out who did it? >> oh, i don't know. i would say that this is going to be probably taken care of very quickly. i'm not going to guess as to the process or timeline for the sergeant at arms. what they're probably doing is looking to make sure they have this air tight so they can actually move forward and take the corrective personnel action. >> a lot has change friday when i worked there. in my day, congressman, you were

responsible for everyone who works in your office. they serve at your pleasure. it's not civil service. you find out who did it and you nail them. your thoughts, congressman? >> clarke has a tough job being a member of a club of someone who doesn't want him as a member. if it takes more than a couple of days, it begins to get suspicious. another day, two days. if it takes beyond that, what's the problem? there are a limited number of suspects. what are the values of the people in your office? what is the procedure you'll put into place in the future? >> i'd probably start with the people named james. thank you, congressman and clarke cooper. you were manfully defending all republicans tonight. when we return, let me finish with thought about bill clinton's advice to barack obama. you're watching "hardball."

so, get this -- kraft mac & cheese... but it's in a bag. and you bake it... in the oven. whatever happened to cheesasaurus rex? i love that guy. well, kraft corporation, i'm on to you -- going after the grown-ups and trying to muscle me out. but i'm not going anywhere. [ male announcer ] new kraft homestyle macaroni & cheese. cheesy noodles topped with golden brown breadcrumbs. you know you love it. cheesy noodles topped with golden brown breadcrumbs. at pso, we set out tot your dog to discover the science inle. some of nature's best ingredients. we created purina one with smartblend.

new, delicious shredded morsels and crunchy bites, with real meat, wholesome grains and antioxidants, for strong muscles, vital energy, a healthy immune system, and a real difference in your dog. purina one improved with smartblend. discover what one can do. my friends at work think there's more than one "me." ...because on our trips, i always get there faster. see, expedia lets me mix and match airlines. so i can take one airline out... and another home. so with more flight options, i can find the combination that gets me there and back quickest. with a little help from expedia, my friends will think i can be everywhere at once. where you book matters. expedia.

let me finish tonight with what president clinton started with this morning. actually, let me be tougher than him. let me put it on the line, straight from the shoulder. first of all, get on the same page as the voter. that was the big chunk of advice president clinton gave his democratic successor, barack obama today. start feeling some of that pain the people are feeling. clinton used to say he was looking out for people who work hard and play by the rules. well, millions of those people clinton talked about are out of work. not because of any fault of their own. obama's got to tell those people it's not their fault. it's the economy, damnit or stupid.

i'm doing everything i can to fix it. i'm trying big things and they're controversial. but i'm doing what every smart economist tells us is the right thing to do. so you can agree with that i'm trying, the president should say, or not. but the point is i feel what you're feeling and i hate it. second, president clinton said president barack obama should say it's a tough world out there. and he should say i know america's done it before. we've beaten other countries in the world and we'll do it again this time. his fourth counsel should be to go on the attack and beat the opposition. this is the bulls eye. does anyone believe that the republicans who have done nothing the past two years but obstruct and hide on the sidelines deserve a big fat volt of confidence, three cheers for doing nothing when it could have done something constructive like create jobs, deal with health careosts and fix wall street?